###### choose to use a qualitative study that was included in the literature review you used in the Week One assignment by searching the reference list for qualitative research studies on the topic. It is also acceptable to utilize a qualitative research study on your topic that was not included in your literature review.
September 6, 2018
###### Prepare a case brief of the above case scenario. Identify the issue, rule(s), analysis, and conclusion. Please use the headings in your case brief write-up as shown below.
September 6, 2018

## Assignment 2: Probability Analysis

A General Manger of Harley-Davidson has to decide on the size of a new facility. The GM has narrowed the choices to two: large facility or small facility. The company has collected information on the payoffs. It now has to decide which option is the best using probability analysis, the decision tree model, and expected monetary value.

Options:

FacilityDemand OptionsProbabilityActionsExpected PayoffsLargeLow Demand0.4Do Nothing(\$10)Low Demand0.4Reduce Prices\$50High Demand0.6\$70SmallLow Demand0.4\$40High Demand0.6Do Nothing\$40High Demand0.6Overtime\$50High Demand0.6Expand\$55

Determination of chance probability and respective payoffs:

Build Small:Low Demand0.4(\$40)=\$16High Demand0.6(\$55)=\$33Build Large:Low Demand0.4(\$50)=\$20High Demand0.6(\$70)=\$42

Determination of Expected Value of each alternative
Build Small: \$16+\$33=\$49
Build Large: \$20+\$42=\$62

Click here for the Statistical Terms review sheet. ( I attached it below)

Submit your conclusion in a Word document to the Submissions Area by the due date assigned .

Assignment 2 Grading Criteria Maximum Points

The diagram is accurate and labeled correctly. The diagram clearly illustrates the sequence of events and their probability of occurrences.32 points

A step-by-step breakdown of the calculations for the chance of probability and respective payoff is clearly communicated. The results of the calculations are accurate.28 points

Clear and concise statement explaining the decision and a description of elements that lead to the decision.20 points

Clear and concise statement explaining the decision and a description of elements that lead to the decision.20 points

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