The supplement to Chapter 5 in your textbook describes and develops several decision trees (page 220). In 4-page paper, develop a decision tree for a work or personal decision that you must make. Explain the process of developing a decision tree, and your specific case. You must have at least three Decision Points, and three Chance Events. As shown in the Risk Precis video provided below, make sure to parameterize the outcomes, determine the expected value, and defend your final decision based on your decision tree.

Your well-written paper should meet the following requirements:

– Be 4 pages in length, not including the cover or reference pages.

– Formatted according to APA writing guidelines.

– Be sure to use at least 3 current, scholarly references those published within the most recent five-year period and scholarly sources are those from peer-reviewed journals.

– Support your interpretation with evidence from the textbook (Stevenson, W. (2018). Operations management (13th ed.). New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Irwin.) which can be found in: https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Bx9dz8GJLkYpMnRV…

– Risk Precis. (2016, Feb 15). Using decision trees for risk analysis [Video file]. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-f5I99Q9hwY

– Citing references as appropriate in each paragraph. *** very important***

– Utilize headings to organize the content in your work.

– The plagiarism percentage allowed is 20% only, i will be checking it using TurnItIn.